|
Model portfolios were created to track the ability
of Fund-Track to compare and identify superior mutual funds at any time
under any market conditions. This ability to maintain a successful mutual
fund timing system is gauged by the returns of the model portfolios.
There are 2 model Fund-Track portfolios, the Single Fund Portfolio which holds
one fund at a time and the more diversified Multi-Fund Portfolio which holds 3
funds at a time. These
portfolios utilize the mechanical trading recommendations (Buy, Sell & Hold) that are
recommended for using the Fund-Track mutual fund ratings, which get triggered based on the following rules:
 | Trade (sell) when fund dips below top
20% (top 40) of all funds on rank OR when Average Strength for a
fund drops below 0% OR when its Short Term Strength drops below
-5.0%, whichever first. |
| Purchase the highest ranked fund
showing positive Average Strength (> 0%) and positive Short Term
strength greater then 2%. |
For years 1999 - 2002 funds were traded just on
Fridays based on the end-of-week rank. Starting in 2003 trades could be made
also on Tuesday's as well based on the Tuesday evening mid week rank regularly
posted. Prior to the advent of the Buy, Sell and Hold signals in
August 2002 Funds were traded according to the above rules.
The model portfolios and their performances are hypothetical
and assume that funds bought and sold at the time the recommendations were
issued. Actual results can and do vary based on day of execution and
commission charges. They were initiated in 1999 and have been traded
since. They have not been back tested prior to that. The following factors would affect
"actual" performance.
| Commissions/Fees -
Fund-Track model portfolio returns do not include any trading commissions or
transaction fees. These fees vary among the various brokerages and
range from nothing for Transaction Free funds on various
brokerages to 0.75% (minimum sized fund investments with
commissions on Schwab). These fees' would serve to lower published
portfolio returns downward slightly. |
| Distributions - The
performance returns do not include fund
distributions (Capital gains, dividends). If included they would
serve to raise portfolio returns. Distributions are included
within the Fund-Track ranks and for the % Return YTD columns on
the ranks. |
| Trading Delays - For
simplicity the model portfolios assume that Sells and
corresponding Buys are made on the same day at the closing price
for that day (prices on the ranks). In reality, buys would
probably be a
day delayed (depending upon the brokerage) and thus at a slightly
different price. |
Back to Top
This page documents
the performance of the model portfolios for Fund-Track for 2004 in a
quarter by quarter review.
|
|
2005 |
|
Single Fund Model
Portfolio |
9.9% |
|
Multi-Fund Model
Portfolio |
9.8% |
|
Nasdaq |
1.9% |
|
S&P Composite |
1.1% |
|
DJIA |
- 0.4% |
Funds
Review
These PDF reports display all Fund-Track funds
ranked for the year by return for 2005. The average
Fund-Track fund returned 4.27% for the year. 109 funds of the 193 (57%) of
Fund-Track funds performed better then the Nasdaq market index which was up 1.9%
for the year. 119
funds finished with positive returns for the (62%). The best performer
was the Fidelity Latin America Fund up over 51% for the year, while the
poorest performer was the Icon Consumer Discretionary fund which was down over 18%.
Regarding Fund-Type, the best performing funds for the
year were the international funds particularly in Latin America, Japan, and the
emerging markets. (25 - 50% AThe best industry sector was Real Estate
which averaged about a 15% return. The worst perfroming sector was
the Financial sector which droped over 8% on average. Mid Cap growth funds
were the best performing fund style while small cap value was the worst.
Model
Portfolio Review
These PDF reports display the model portfolio
performances for the year including all transactions undertaken.
The Single-Fund Portfolio returned 9.9% on 6 trades for the
year. The Multi-fund
portfolio returned 9.8% in 14 trades for the year.
This page documents
the performance of the model portfolios for Fund-Track for 2004 in a
quarter by quarter review.
|
|
2004 |
|
Single Fund Model
Portfolio |
- 27.3% |
|
Multi-Fund Model
Portfolio |
0.4% |
|
Nasdaq |
8.6% |
|
S&P Composite |
9.1% |
|
DJIA |
3.0% |
Funds
Review
These PDF reports display all Fund-Track funds
ranked for the year by return for 2004. The average
Fund-Track fund returned 14.6% for the year. 147 funds of the 200 (74%) of
Fund-Track funds performed better then the Nasdaq market index which was up 8.6%
for the year. 186
funds finished with positive returns for the (93%). The best performer
was the Fidelity Latin America Fund up over 41% for the year, while the
poorest performer was the Grizzly Short fund down over 14%.
Regarding Fund-Type The best performing funds for the quarter were
the real estate, natural resources and emerging market funds all up over 30% on
average. All fund sectors/classes and international
regions performed positively with the exception of the Bear market funds.
Most all Fund-Track sectors outperformed the
market indices.
Model
Portfolio Review
These PDF reports display the model portfolio
performances for the year including all transactions undertaken.
The Single-Fund Portfolio returned -21.3% on 8 completed trades for the
year. The Multi-fund
portfolio returned 0.4% off of 19 completed trades.
A very choppy market resulted in a poor performance
by the Fund-Track model portfolios. Most trends were short lived,
and lacked staying power, and price movements were very quick either up or down
at the initialization of these trends.
The table below displays the
performance of the Fund-Track model portfolios for the 5 year period
1999 - 2005 vs. 3 of the common Indexes:
| Historical Performance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
7-yr Tot |
Avg Annual |
|
Single Fund Portfolio: |
164.3% |
23.8% |
1.0% |
27.9% |
13.8% |
- 27.3% |
9.9% |
284.3% |
21.2% |
|
Multi-Fund Portfolio: |
113.2% |
-0.9% |
27.3% |
7.7% |
36.2% |
0.4% |
9.8% |
334.5% |
23.4% |
|
Dow: |
25.2% |
-6.0% |
-7.1% |
-16.8% |
25.3% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
16.9% |
2.3% |
|
S&P 500: |
19.5% |
-10.0% |
-13.0% |
-23.4% |
26.4% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
1.7% |
0.2% |
|
Nasdaq: |
85.6% |
-39.3% |
-21.1% |
-31.5% |
50.0% |
8.6% |
8.6% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
The Single Fund portfolio has averaged 5.2 trades
per year over this 7 year period with an average fund holding time of 105 days.
The Multi-Fund portfolio has averaged 12 trades per year (3 funds = 4.0 trades
per fund) over this period with an average fund holding time of 103 days.
The performance of both model portfolios including
all trades made is
detailed in the following 2 PDF files.
Discontinued as of Early 2005
MSN Money runs a feature entitled
Strategy Lab where it enlists a panel of 6 expert investment
managers that employ differing strategies in competition with each
other. These pros start with $100,000 in Strategy Lab dollars, build
a portfolio and try for the best returns over a certain length of
time (a round). The rounds can run through a number of months within
and/or between years. The transactions of each investment pro can be
seen on the MSN Strategy Lab pages. To compare against these pros I
built a Fund-Track model portfolio based on the top 3 funds at the
beginning of the round and use the standard model portfolio trading
rules as outlined in the Performance Explained section below. This
comparison started with round 7 in December 2001.
This section to be updated in early 2005
Round 10
Round 10 started on March 19 2004
and is ongoing. The table below depicts the return of
all 6 Pros vs. the Fund-Track multi-fund model portfolio for this
time period. (I will try to update this section once a month)
As of Friday July 30 , 2004
| MSN Strategy Lab Returns |
|
| Expert |
|
Amount |
Round Ret |
| The Amateur |
$91,851 |
-8.1% |
| Political Economist |
$104,275 |
4.3% |
| Rational Investor |
$99,662 |
-0.3% |
| Model Behavior |
$100,561 |
0.6% |
| Fund Upgrader* |
$96,680 |
-3.3% |
| GARP Guru |
|
$82,835 |
-17.2% |
| Fund-Track |
$86,877 |
-13.1% |
| |
|
|
| Nasdaq |
|
-5.8% |
| Dow Jones |
|
-3.0% |
| S & P 500 |
|
- 0.9% |
* Note: - Fund-Upgrader - Janet Brown publishes the
No-Load FundX Newsletter, which is similar in approach to what
Fund-Track does.
The Fund Track 3 fund portfolio and its
transactions can be viewed in detail on the following PDF file:
Round 9
Round 9 started on July 26th 2003
and ended on March 12. The table below depicts the return of
all 6 Pros vs. the Fund-Track multi-fund model portfolio for this
time period.
| MSN Strategy Lab Returns |
|
| Expert |
|
Amount |
Round Ret |
| The Amateur |
$107,045 |
7.0% |
| Momentum Mechanic |
$100,919 |
0.9% |
| The Scorekeeper |
$87,185 |
-12.8% |
| Model Behavior |
$107,078 |
7.1% |
| Fund Upgrader* |
$116,928 |
16.9% |
| Special Value |
$112,530 |
12.5% |
| Fund-Track |
$111,098 |
10.1% |
| |
|
|
|
| Nasdaq |
|
9.8% |
| Dow Jones |
|
8.4% |
| S & P 500 |
|
11.0% |
* Note: - Fund-Upgrader - Janet Brown publishes the
No-Load FundX Newsletter, which is similar in approach to what
Fund-Track does.
The Fund Track 3 fund portfolio and its
transactions can be viewed in detail on the following PDF file:
Round 8
Round 8 started on January 10 2003
and ended on August 15 2003. The table below depicts the
return of all 6 Pros vs. the Fund-Track multi-fund model portfolio
for this time period.
| Expert |
|
End Amt |
End Return |
|
Trend Trader |
$77,683 |
-22.3% |
|
Tech Tactician |
$98,513 |
-1.5% |
|
The Accelerator |
$90,289 |
-9.7% |
|
Model Behavior |
$97,945 |
-2.1% |
|
Fund Upgrader* |
| | 
